Donavan Brazier 1500m?!

trackstaa

4 years ago

After seeing Brazier seemingly stroll (until the last lap) a 3:35 1500m and Flotrack’s consistent persistence on the subject, we wanted to give our take on the reality of Brazier eventually stepping up to the 1500m.

First of all, it is worth noting, Brazier is naturally a 400m – 800m runner, but since training with Pete Julian he’s also had 1500m type training incorporated into the mix. We are going to base all our assumptions on the fact Brazier’s training remains the same, rather than if he trained more for the 1500m. We will be using three races to compare how Brazier would’ve faired if he was featured in the race. We will be looking at the 2016 Rio Olympics, 2018 Payton Jordan and the 2019 World Championships.

2016 Rio Olympics

Centrowitz ran a 37.8 last 300m after going through 1200m in 3:12.08. This 3:12.08, would’ve been around a 3:16 if it wasn’t for the 12.5 second 100m after the bell. It is fair to say this pace was very easy for everyone in the race. Comparing this to Braziers race, he went through 400m to go in 2:43 and 1200m in 2:57. This pace is noticeably a lot faster, yet Brazier still closed in a 24/25 last 200m, whereas Centrowitz finished in a 25.4 last 200m. If Centrowitz decided to deploy the same tactic with Brazier in the race, I believe Brazier at his current fitness would’ve won the Rio Olympics. However, its unclear if the same tactic would’ve been used and if Centrowitz controlled the race at a 3:35 pace it may have ran the legs of Brazier. After all, that Rio 1500m, is probably one of the best tactically ran races in history.

2018 Payton Jordan

This is my favourite none championship race ever, where we see Jakob Ingebrigtsen make his breakthrough on the senior stage by dominantly kicking away from; Centrowitz, Chelimo and Engels to name a few. Jakob went through the bell in pretty much the same time Brazier did (2:43). Jakob ended up winning by over a second, in a time of 3:39.06, which resulted in a 55.6 last lap. Considering both races went through the bell in the exact same time, I’d say its fair to suggest if Brazier was in the right position to kick he would’ve pulled away with Jakob and out kicked him in the last 150m.

2019 Doha

This race was very different. Cheruiyot lead the race from start to finish and everyone else seemed to race for 2nd. Cheruiyot’s splits were; 55.01 (400m), 1:51.74 (800m), 2:48.22 (1200m), where he ran a last 300m in a 41, finishing in 3:29.26. Personally, I believe we haven’t seen enough from Brazier to believe he could run this time and in this race he would’ve been fighting for 2nd & 3rd like the rest of the field. Brazier himself has stated he believes the way he ran 3:35 is the best strategy for 800m runner like himself, so it’s pretty unclear how fast he could go. This is probably Brazier being humble and even he, must be slightly excited about what he’s capable of running over three and three quarter laps.

With his immense talent, speed and current low milage, I think it’s fair to think, at some point in his career he could be challenging for another American record in the 1500m.

Brazier among many of the Worlds best athletes are racing in Monaco on the 14th of August, Click here to read our race preview.